6 Best Bets for Thursday Night
Chiefs vs Lions Odds
Thursday, Sep 7
8:20 p.m. ET
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Thursday Night Soccer of Week 1 is sort of upon us. Which means it is time for Chiefs vs Lions picks, odds, participant props and extra in our 6 greatest bets for Thursday Night as we start the 2023 NFL season.
We have been ready virtually seven months for the NFL to return. The final time we had significant NFL soccer, these Chiefs hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. However they are not precisely the identical Kansas Metropolis staff that can take the sector tonight towards the Lions. The Chiefs is likely to be lacking key gamers on either side of the ball, as Travis Kelce was dominated out for Kansas Metropolis simply after 5:30 p.m. ET.
Happily, they nonetheless have Patrick Mahomes, who options closely in our Chiefs vs Lions picks, odds, participant props and greatest bets.
Our employees of betting analysts is throughout this recreation with this entire betting preview. From Chiefs vs Lions unfold picks to totals and loads of participant props, listed below are our specialists’ favourite Chiefs vs Lions picks and greatest bets, in addition to the most recent Chiefs vs Lions odds and extra.
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Chiefs vs Lions Picks, Best Bets
The staff logos within the desk under signify every of the matchups that our NFL betting employees is focusing on from at this time’s slate of video games. Click on on the staff logos for any of the matchups under to navigate to a selected guess mentioned on this article.
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Chiefs vs Lions Unfold Choose, Best Wager
By Tanner McGrath
The Lions completed ninth in Offensive DVOA final season, and the offense might get higher this season. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is again, and the Lions added weapons within the draft (Jahmy Gibbs and Sam LaPorta). Additionally, the Penei Sewell-Taylor Decker-Frank Ragnow offensive line trio will likely be rock stable.
In the meantime, Detroit’s younger defensive stars shined within the second half of final season. Aidan Hutchison and James Houston will thrive within the go rush, whereas the Lions additionally overhauled their secondary within the offseason with cornerbacks CJ Moseley, CJ Gardner-Johnson and Cam Sutton whereas drafting security Brian Department.
The Chiefs, in the meantime, are a dominant offense with a league-average protection. Sound acquainted?
Kansas Metropolis’s protection figures to enhance because the season progresses, however that gained’t assist them in Week 1. Defensive roster turnover and younger expertise don’t bode effectively in an early season tilt towards an elite NFL offense.
In the meantime, Travis Kelce is out for this recreation. With out him, I’m uncertain if the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes offense will roll, particularly towards Detroit’s vastly extra gifted secondary.
In the meantime, all of the historic traits are telling us to guess Detroit. Regardless of the Chiefs’ normal dominance, they’ve been surprisingly ineffective at masking as favorites. The Chiefs are 14-25 ATS as favorites of over a area objective since 2020. Though the market is shifting to Chiefs -3.5 at various books, you’ll be able to nonetheless get Lions +4.5 at bet365 — and whilst you’re there, be sure that to make use of our bet365 bonus code!
Mahomes scores factors, however his protection permits underdogs to hold round.
In the meantime, hanging round is what the Johnson-Goff offense does. Regardless of fielding a awful, ineffective protection, the Lions are 17-9 ATS as underdogs of greater than a area objective within the Dan Campbell period.
Two extra for the highway:
- Week 1 underdogs of 6.5 or extra factors are 49-31 ATS since 2005 (61%, 19% ROI).
- Week 1 highway ‘canine that missed the earlier postseason (e.g., the Lions) are 84-57-5 since 2005 (60%, 16% ROI).
The Lions might win this recreation outright, however I’ll fortunately take the factors.
QuickSlip is an Motion Community characteristic that enables customers to robotically pre-load their guess slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Chiefs vs Lions Group Props Picks, Best Bets
By Billy Ward
My favourite NFL prop is again — at the least at BetMGM — after coming and going a number of occasions final season. That may be the “Will both staff document 3 unanswered scores” guess, discovered below the “scoring props” tab.
After I first began trying into this guess, BetMGM saved the identical value on it for each single recreation, with the no at +175. That was fairly clearly inaccurate, as some video games have been definitely extra prone to have three straight scores than others.
By charting 5 years price of information, I got here to the conclusion that this guess correlates much more closely with the unfold than it does the overall. With the flat pricing throughout all video games, this made any recreation with a variety of two.5 or much less a price, and blind-betting these alternatives produces roughly a unit of revenue per week.
Now, issues are a bit extra difficult, as I am anticipating assorted pricing on the guess based mostly on the +200 within the opener. Nevertheless, it definitely appears that books (DraftKings often gives this prop as effectively) are correlating their pricing to the overall, reasonably than the unfold.
Whereas the overall issues, the unfold is the much more necessary issue. This prop went up when the unfold was at 6.5 factors — and I used to be exhibiting a price on it then — but it surely’s a fair higher worth now that the unfold has tightened in response to the Travis Kelce damage. An damage that additionally put a dent within the whole.
That is the opposite manner we will discover an edge on this prop (and different derivatives). Even when books value the prop completely at open, if the unfold and/or whole transfer, there’s generally worth in props that they’ve forgot to regulate.
I’ve a good worth on this one round +160 (relying on the way you weigh the unfold vs. the overall) following the road motion, making the +200 an amazing play.
Choose: Both Group 3 Unanswered Scores — No (+200)
Chiefs vs Lions Participant Props Picks, Best Bets
By Nick Bretwisch
No matter whether or not Travis Kelce was on the shelf for this season’s opener, my numbers anticipated a bit extra of a run-script for the Lions offense. Getting right into a shootout with the Chiefs when your second-best confirmed pass-catcher is 33-year-old Marvin Jones Jr. looks like a foul thought.
My mannequin has Goff for 245 passing yards and that provides us a really minimal 4% anticipated edge over FanDuel’s present quantity. Usually, this could be a “lean” and move-on sort of scenario however since it is the opening recreation of the 12 months, I will get some gentle motion down.
Choose: Jared Goff Beneath 258.5 Passing Yards
Chiefs vs Lions Patrick Mahomes Props
By Grant Neiffer
That is one among my favourite props of the week.
Mahomes will get a matchup towards the Lions, who gave up probably the most speeding yards to opposing QBs final season — an enormous 700 whole with the following closest being Miami at 525. Whereas that is barely inflated as a consequence of taking part in Justin Fields twice and giving up 300 yards whole between these two video games, Detroit’s protection remains to be a stable matchup for cellular QBs.
The full and unfold for this recreation are additionally stable right here, and Mahomes has some legs. He hit the over at this quantity in 10 of 17 video games final season, averaging over 20 yards per recreation. Additionally, Kelce lacking this recreation might trigger Mahomes to do some work on the bottom right here.
I might guess this line as much as 18.5.
Choose: Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 Speeding Yards
Chiefs vs Lions Complete Over/Beneath Picks, Best Bets
By Ricky Henne
The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs common 37.8 — 37.8! — factors per recreation in season openers with Patrick Mahomes below heart. Whereas Kelce’s knee damage throws a monkey wrench into issues, it does present an edge to those that consider the Chiefs offense can nonetheless cook dinner with out him.
The Chiefs’ staff whole was as excessive as 31.5 a number of days in the past. Now, with Kelce out, you’ll be able to seize it as little as 28.5. That three-point shift is drastic. Whereas it reveals simply how necessary Kelce is to this offense, I really feel it’s an overreaction contemplating the maestro orchestrating this offense.
We’re blessed each time we get to look at Mahomes take the sector, however that’s particularly the case within the first week of the season. The reigning MVP boasts a ridiculous 136.9 passer ranking over his 5 season openers, throwing for 1,542 yards, 18 touchdowns and nil interceptions.
So, when you have been prepared to again the Chiefs’ whole at 31.5 with Kelce, don’t be afraid to again it at 28.5 probably with out him. For me, there’s merely an excessive amount of historical past with regards to Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 1 to disregard.
I do have my limits, although. Kelce’s absence is completely a recreation changer, simply not one I really feel ought to trigger a full three-point shift, which is why 28.5 is a tough threshold for me.
Choose: Chiefs Group Complete Over 28.5
Chiefs vs Lions Jerick McKinnon Props
By Chris Baker
I believe McKinnon is poised to profit from Kelce’s absence tonight.
The Lions will possible be beginning a mixture of rookie LB Jack Campbell and veteran Alex Anzalone. Campbell was tremendous in protection in faculty however was undoubtedly drafted as a consequence of his prowess as a run-defender and his toughness. I count on him to have issue adjusting to NFL velocity, and that is an particularly troublesome first recreation given how a lot pre-snap movement (third in 2022) the Chiefs use.
Anzalone, in the meantime, was graded forty second out of 70 certified linebackers in protection grade in line with Professional Soccer Focus. If Malcolm Rodriguez sees any taking part in time, he’ll virtually definitely be focused by Andy Reid because the sophomore had a brutal rookie 12 months in protection.
I additionally suppose the truth that the Lions blitzed on the sixth-highest fee in 2022 advantages McKinnon, because the Chiefs will possible scheme up some screens for him.
This isn’t an particularly troublesome matchup for McKinnon on paper, however what actually pushes this over the sting for me is the absence of Kelce. You can also make a case that McKinnon is definitely probably the most confirmed receiving menace for Mahomes coming into Thursday evening since he completed with a better receiving DVOA and Protection-Adjusted Yards Above Substitute than each non-Kelce Chief in 2022.
The absence of Chris Jones and Kelce ought to preserve this recreation a bit tighter than it in any other case can be, serving to preserve the Chiefs in at the least a neutral-game script that ought to assist McKinnon clear this pedestrian whole.