How every NFL team can win Super Bowl 58: Projections, paths

How every NFL team can win Super Bowl 58: Projections, paths

Invoice BarnwellESPN Employees AuthorSep 6, 2023, 06:30 AM ET3 Minute Learn


Let’s end up the preview of the NFL season with my annual take a look at how every of the league’s 32 groups can win the Super Bowl. Clearly, there’s just one trophy to go round in the true world, however this preview is not about depicting what’s almost certainly to occur this season. It is a take a look at the universe every team would possibly must populate if it needs to ship on its hopes and desires and declare the Lombardi Trophy in February in Las Vegas.

On the finish of an extended summer time once we’ve all spent months excited about who will win Super Bowl LVIII, I do know what you are pondering: Do not be ridiculous. There are in all probability six or seven groups which have a shot at successful the title, at greatest. The Chiefs in all probability are going to be representing the AFC as a result of that is merely what occurs nearly every season. There is no level in even speaking about eventualities by which two-thirds of the league advances to the championship sport, as a result of there is not any hope of that occuring.

Here is the place I’ve to depend on historical past. Let’s think about a number of the groups that exceeded expectations in current reminiscence:

  • The 1999 Rams had been coming off a 4-12 season and misplaced beginning quarterback Trent Inexperienced to a torn ACL through the preseason. They’d the sixth-longest odds of any team to win the Super Bowl. Kurt Warner gained MVP, and St. Louis took house the {hardware}.

  • The 2001 Patriots had the league’s seventh-longest odds heading into the season, and that was with Drew Bledsoe at quarterback. Bledsoe acquired harm in September, unheralded backup Tom Brady took over and a team that had gone 5-11 the earlier season upset the Rams to win the primary of many Super Bowls.

  • The 2007 Giants had been fifteenth in preseason Super Bowl odds and spent the summer time questioning whether or not edge rusher Michael Strahan would return to the team. They upset the beforehand undefeated Patriots within the Super Bowl.

  • The 2017 Eagles had been tied for 14th in Super Bowl odds, alongside the Texans (who would go 4-12) and Vikings (5-11). After posting a shedding document the earlier season, the Eagles rode MVP-caliber play from Carson Wentz to a division title, then Nick Foles to a Super Bowl upset of the Pats.

  • The 2021 Bengals ranked twenty ninth within the ESPN Soccer Energy Index’s estimation of Super Bowl probabilities heading into the season. Though they did not declare the trophy, they made it far additional than anyone anticipated, successful the AFC earlier than falling simply brief in Inglewood, California, on the largest stage.

With that in thoughts, I will run by every team and the state of affairs that may lead it to successful the Super Bowl (or at the least making a deep playoff run) through the 2023 season. In some instances, one of the best I can do is paint an image for a divisional title and hope the team stumbles blissfully by the postseason driving fumble and subject objective luck. For a lot of, although, it is attainable to think about a state of affairs by which the whole lot goes proper and the team emerges as probably the greatest in soccer.

I am going to run from worst to first so as of the anticipated Super Bowl odds within the FPI (Soccer Energy Index), however I am going to additionally give every team’s probability of creating it into the playoffs. You in all probability will not be stunned the place issues finish, however you undoubtedly will not be shocked to see the place these rankings begin:

Pay attention: The Invoice Barnwell Present archive

Soar to a team:
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF

Probability to win Super Bowl LVIII: Lower than 0.1%
Probability to make the playoffs: 4.4%


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