Lions vs Chiefs Predictions, Odds & Picks

Lions vs Chiefs Predictions, Odds & Picks

The 2023 NFL season is upon us and there is no higher method to kick off the season than a shootout between Detroit and Kansas Metropolis. Our NFL picks count on Detroit to make the most of Jahmyr Gibbs to the utmost impact. Learn on to search out out what betting markets to assault!

The return of the NFL is simply hours away, because the defending Tremendous Bowl Champion Kansas Metropolis Chiefs host the Detroit Lions.

TNF odds opened with the Chiefs as 6.5-point favorites with the very best Week 1 odds complete at 54.5, and I am anticipating the opening sport of the 2023 season to be a shootout.

The Lions made an enormous funding in Alabama operating again Jahmyr Gibbs, choosing him within the first spherical of the NFL Draft, and with the passing function within the backfield seemingly all his, bettors ought to proceed to pile on the Over for his receiving yards — even after sharps moved the NFL odds.

I am doing it, and I am going to clarify why Gibbs is my greatest free NFL decide — and the main target of my Lions vs. Chiefs SGP — in my breakdown of tonight’s TNF matchup.

Additionally: Do not forget to take a look at our TNF props, in addition to our Patrick Mahomes picks highlight.

Lions vs Chiefs odds

Lions vs Chiefs predictions

The Detroit Lions traded away D’Andre Swift and used a excessive first-round decide on rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs — and they’re going to most positively use him tonight.

Gibbs’ greatest contributions come within the passing sport the place he caught 78% of his passes in school for almost 10 yards a goal. He has elite 4.36 velocity and may rip off large features. He additionally has a top-tier offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson who could have loads of alternatives to be inventive with the rookie.

The Lions are street underdogs, so the sport script is in his favor and Gibbs could possibly be taking part in towards a mushy protection late if Kansas Metropolis leads large late though I feel this Over 29.5 receiving yards will get throughout the road effectively earlier than then. The Chiefs allowed 47.4 receiving yards to opposing operating backs final 12 months which was a High-5 mark.

The seemingly absence of go rusher Chris Jones can also be in Gibbs’ favor. With much less of a go rush, the rookie RB won’t must contribute to go safety as a lot and be free to launch on routes on time. 

Sharp bettors already hit this when the markets opened driving the opening line of mid-20s to greater than 30 yards at most books. As of Tuesday, there are nonetheless some 29.5s accessible, and that is a guess I will be making at -120 at BetRivers.

With a attainable 60/40 cut up of the snaps, most of his play coming between the 20s, and the abilities to bust large features, his milestone 125 complete yards at +700 at bet365 is one thing I’m additionally on at 0.3 models. 

This might doubtlessly be the subsequent Alvin Kamara and OC Ben Johnson will know learn how to use him. Contemplating he has a reception complete of three.5 and a protracted reception of 14.5 yards, my Lions vs. Chiefs prediction is Gibbs going Over 29.5 receiving yards — a play I’d guess as much as 32.5 or 33.5 yards.  

My greatest guessJahmyr Gibbs Over 29.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetRivers)

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Lions vs Chiefs same-game parlay

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Gibbs Over 30.5 receiving yards

Gibbs Over 39.5 speeding yards

Over 54.5

Not each bettor loves SGPs however Caesars does have a good promo of a 50% increase as much as $25 which could not be for everybody however a good increase for lower-wager bettors. This increase turns a possible $127.50 revenue into $191.25 on a $25 guess.  

If Gibbs sees the Swift function in Johnson’s offense, a 5-6 goal, double-digit carry evening is cheap. Contemplating being 6.5-point canines with an enormous complete, Detroit may see some mushy defenses and constant features late.

Each offenses can rating and KC may power Detroit to be aggressive if Reid dismantles the Thirty first-ranked protection from 2022. If Gibbs goes off, these numbers may appear to be a steal.   

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Lions vs Chiefs unfold and Over/Beneath evaluation

The Chiefs have been a 7-point favourite again in August at Pinnacle however hit -6.5 in early September. That quantity dropped to -4.5 at most sportsbooks on Wednesday when Andy Reid revealed Travis Kelce had hyper-extended his left knee in follow, and he was dominated out hours earlier than kickoff.

The whole has seen slightly motion which shouldn’t be shocking because it’s the very best complete of Week 1 at 54.5. Pinnacle had it at 54 for many of late August after which have been the primary books to hit 55 which they did Tuesday morning whereas another books sat at 54.5. 

The important thing numbers listed below are 54 and 55 which have a mixed 5.47% hit price since 2015. Fifty-five is the eighth-most frequent ultimate complete over that stretch.

Taking a look at this matchup, one of many extra essential issues for bettors to have a look at is the success that KC coach Andy Reid has with time to arrange. We all know he is 22-3 SU as a coach following a bye within the common season and 9-3 SU within the playoffs however he is had the summer season to sport plan vs. the Thirty first-ranked protection in EPA/play a season in the past. 

Since Mahomes has come on board as a Week 1 starter, Reid and the Chiefs are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in season openers, averaging 37.8 factors per sport. Over his 10 years with the membership, Reid is 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) in openers.

The worrisome half about taking the Chiefs to cowl is the backdoor potential of this Detroit offense being led by offensive coordinator Ben Johnson who Professional Soccer Focuses ranked the most effective in soccer. 

He’ll seemingly have extra time to execute his sport plan as go rusher Chris Jones is uncertain. His direct impression on this protection shouldn’t be understated and was an enormous cause why the secondary performed so effectively within the second half final 12 months.

The backdoor is actual on tonight and a cause I’d fairly play factors — particularly with books sitting at 54.5 whereas Pinnacle has moved to 55.

The transfer to 55 won’t appear adequate however 55 is a High-10 frequent quantity. The climate appears to be like clear and the mid-70s temps shouldn’t gradual the tempo and manufacturing down in comparison with another Week 1 higher-temp video games.    

It’s a lean on the Over 54.5 for me within the opener as Reid and his younger secure of playmakers ought to shred a poor Lions protection whereas Johnson has quite a lot of weapons and Jared Goff may need quite a lot of time to make choices with Jones nonetheless holding out.

Take a look at our Lions vs. Chiefs professional picks for extra evaluation. 

Lions vs Chiefs betting pattern to know

The Chiefs have scored first of their final seven house video games (+7.00 models / 48% ROI). Discover extra NFL betting tendencies for Lions vs. Chiefs.

Lions vs Chiefs sport information

Location: GEHA Discipline at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas Metropolis, MO
Date: Thursday, September 7, 2023
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: Amazon Prime, NBC
Opening odds: Chiefs -7, 54

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