NFL Kickoff Game picks: Potentially short-handed Chiefs offer value vs. Lions as 2023 season begins

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All instances Jap | Game odds through SportsLine consensus

🔥 The Scorching Ticket

Lions at Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. | TV: NBC

• The Choose: Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
• Key pattern: The Chiefs are 12-8-1 ATS towards the NFC since 2019.

I do not know what’s more durable to wrap my head round with this recreation. The actual fact the Lions are enjoying in primetime within the first recreation of the NFL common season or that those self same Lions are solely 4.5-point underdogs to the defending Tremendous Bowl champions.

I do know that there is uncertainty surrounding Travis Kelce’s standing for this recreation, however my intestine intuition is he will play. He is probably not full energy, however he’ll be on the sphere as a useful diversion, if nothing else. And even when he would not play, properly, the Chiefs nonetheless have that Patrick Mahomes man. He is fairly first rate.

Not solely is Mahomes one of the best QB within the recreation immediately, he is been higher earlier within the season all through his profession. In a season’s first 4 video games, Mahomes is averaging three touchdowns passing and 308.4 yards per recreation. The Chiefs have gone 17-3 in these video games. Even with out Kelce, I’ve a tough time considering Mahomes will battle as a result of he nonetheless has Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ offensive scheme on his facet.

Then there’s the Lions. It is a crew that feels prefer it’s being topped just because Aaron Rodgers left Inexperienced Bay and all people thinks Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are too boring. The Lions — THE LIONS! — are the cool choose within the NFC North. It is the identical Detroit crew that was 9-8 total final yr however solely 4-7 towards groups outdoors the NFC North. Certain, believing this crew might enhance is not unrealistic, however the Lions could be higher and nonetheless be mediocre.

Do your factor if you wish to wager on a mediocre crew towards the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium in a primetime recreation. I will be doing the sensible factor as an alternative.

👀 Here is what SportsLine is saying concerning the recreation: The Projection Mannequin is on the identical play, and there’s no scarcity of picks obtainable from all of SportsLine’s consultants. Everyone is happy to get the NFL season underway.

💰 The Picks

Lions at Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. | TV: NBC

• The Choose: Jerick McKinnon Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Key pattern: McKinnon averaged 42.4 receiving yards per recreation over Kansas Metropolis’s closing seven video games final yr.

I like this prop if Kelce performs, and I adore it if he doesn’t. As I stated, if Kelce performs, there is a good likelihood he’ll be extra distraction than weapon, however Kansas Metropolis will likely be throwing the ball someplace. The Chiefs have loads of query marks at receiver, however Jerick McKinnon took on a way more important position within the offense late final season.

Over the ultimate seven video games (together with the playoffs), McKinnon averaged 42.4 yards and 4.3 receptions per recreation. The Chiefs offense will proceed to make use of totally different backs, however McKinnon has emerged as the popular again within the passing recreation, and Mahomes has developed a belief in him. There is a robust likelihood he’ll play a bigger position than anticipated tonight.

Murray State at Louisville, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ACC Community

• The Choose: Louisville -42.5 (-115)
• Key pattern: Murray State has misplaced its final three video games towards Energy 5 groups by 45.7 factors per contest.

There’s a faculty recreation tonight, and what a doozy! Louisville hosts Murray State, and whereas I do not make a behavior of betting video games involving FCS colleges, I see value on this spot. Louisville obtained thrown for a loop towards Georgia Tech final week, permitting 28 factors within the second quarter. Nonetheless, the Cardinals obtained their act collectively at halftime, got here out within the second half and dominated the sport 26-6 to drag off a 39-34 win.

Do not count on Murray State to publish a 28-point fourth quarter. Murray State has been one of many lesser FCS applications for a number of years now, and whereas it might have crushed Presbyterian 41-10 final week, Presbyterian could possibly be the worst crew on the FCS degree. The Racers have not had practically the identical success towards Energy 5 groups, dropping their final three contests by a mean of 45.7 factors. That is Jeff Brohm’s first residence recreation again at Louisville as coach, and he’ll wish to placed on a present for the Cardinals trustworthy. Mercy won’t be proven.

🔒 SportsLine Choose of the Day: The SportsLine Projection Mannequin has three “A” graded picks for this weekend’s faculty soccer slate, and consider it or not, Northwestern at Rutgers is certainly one of them.