NFL Week 1 Power Rankings: Chiefs the top-ranked team heading into TNF, Buccaneers sink before kickoff | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics
NFL Week 1 Power Rankings: Chiefs the top-ranked team heading into TNF, Buccaneers sink before kickoff | NFL Information, Rankings and Statistics
• Largest riser: New Orleans Saints (up eight spots since 2022)
• Largest faller: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (down seven spots since 2022)
• Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs lead the method: The star quarterback completed behind solely Joe Burrow in PFF passing grade final season, whereas his offense ranked second in each passing grade (90.0) and anticipated factors added (EPA) per play (0.218) in the 2022 common season.
Estimated studying time: 12 minutes
Week 1 is upon us! On Thursday night time, the Detroit Lions will descend on Arrowhead Stadium to tackle the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, and the 2023 NFL season will formally be underway.
To kick off the season and every week filled with intriguing matchups, listed here are my rankings heading into Week 1.
1. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Postseason rating: 1
Projected wins: 11.2
Will Patrick Mahomes proceed his sizzling streak in season openers?
The star quarterback completed behind solely Joe Burrow in PFF passing grade final season, whereas his offense ranked second in each passing grade (90.0) and anticipated factors added (EPA) per play (0.218) in the 2022 common season.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Postseason rating: 4
Projected wins: 10.4
Joe Burrow had his greatest 12 months by way of PFF wins above substitute (PFF WAR) a season in the past, along with his 5.04 WAR rating first amongst his friends. Together with Burrow, the Bengals have considered one of the greatest receiving corps in the league.
The Bengals’ 80.5 team receiving grade ranked sixth in the league in 2022. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are a lethal mixture.
The Bengals spent some huge cash on their offensive line before the 2022 season, however the unit didn’t carry out accordingly. Their run-block loss charge (negatively graded run-block snaps) was 76.4%, the fifth-highest in the league. Nonetheless, the addition of Orlando Brown Jr. will hopefully assist shore up the line for 2023.
3. Buffalo Payments
Postseason rating: 5
Projected wins: 10.3
The Payments can be with out Tremaine Edmunds and Von Miller for Week 1, so how will they alter?
The graphic under exhibits that the Payments protection was very profitable in the purple zone final season.
One other large query mark for the Payments is their offensive line. They drafted O’Cyrus Torrence and added Germain Ifedi, Connor McGovern and Ryan Van Demark over the offseason, however beginning proper sort out Spencer Brown allowed 42 pressures on 551 pass-blocking snaps in 2022, good for a 7.62% stress charge that ranked 57th out of 63 qualifying tackles. His 53.7 run-blocking grade ranked 54th.
As a unit, this line ranked twenty eighth in team run-blocking grade (50.7) and twenty first in team pass-blocking grade (64.1) final season. There’s undoubtedly room for enchancment.
The addition of tight finish Dalton Kincaid to the offense permits them to run 12 personnel extra typically. A season in the past, they ran 12 personnel solely 1% of the time, thirty first in the NFL. PFF’s Sam Monson lately predicted that Kincaid will develop into the third rookie tight finish in NFL historical past to eclipse 1,000 yards. Kincaid’s 2022 receiving grade (91.8) was the greatest in the nation, and he averaged 2.4 yards per route run.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
Postseason rating: 2
Projected wins: 10.6
The Eagles have been considered one of the high groups in explosive drive charge on offense final season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts was considered one of the greatest in the league in EPA per move play (0.096), and vast receiver A.J. Brown had considered one of the highest deep goal charges in the league (19.6%).
The Eagles have the eighth-hardest schedule in the league this 12 months. Nonetheless, they led the league in team pass-blocking and pass-rush grades final 12 months, and replicating that efficiency will make their lives — and their schedule — a lot simpler.
5. San Francisco 49ers
Postseason rating: 3
Projected wins: 10.2
Will QB Brock Purdy proceed his success? The 2022 draft’s Mr. Irrelevent handed for 8.3 yards per try final season in his run as the starter — greater than Patrick Mahomes and each quarterback in the league apart from Tua Tagovailoa — however he tried simply 233 passes in an offense we all know to be a digital cheat code for manufacturing. His 1.09 WAR put him at twenty fifth out of 43 quarterbacks final 12 months.
The 49ers confronted the highest charge of completely lined performs on offense. They discovered success regardless of that, ending fourth league-wide in team offense grade (82.4).
Their greatest concern is their inside defensive position, which struggled all final season, and it got here to a head when the Eagles ran throughout them in the NFC title sport. The 49ers ended 2022 with the third-lowest-graded inside defender unit in the NFL, so that they’ll want that unit to step up in 2023.
6. Dallas Cowboys
Postseason rating: 7
Projected wins: 9.8
The Cowboys ranked fifteenth in team offense grade in 2022 (75.2). They struggled, with Dak Prescott main the league in interceptions with 15.
CeeDee Lamb‘s 87.0 receiving grade ranked eighth amongst vast receivers final 12 months, whereas his 1,544 receiving yards ranked fifth. He was third in explosive move performs (15-plus yards), which is promising for 2023.
Being in the similar division as the Tremendous Bowl runners-up just isn’t simple, however Dallas might need an opportunity if Dak can keep wholesome and his interception luck swings again in his favor.
7. New York Jets
Postseason rating: 6
Projected wins: 8.9
The Jets overhauled their roster this offseason, bringing in quarterback Aaron Rodgers, vast receiver Allen Lazard and extra.
Having the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Yr makes for a strong roster. Cornerback Sauce Gardner generated the fourth-highest WAR amongst non-quarterbacks final season (0.67), whereas Garrett Wilson trailed solely Deebo Samuel in damaged tackles (22) and gained greater than 1,100 receiving yards regardless of a disastrous quarterback scenario that includes three backup-caliber passers attempting to get him the soccer.
A season in the past, the Jets earned a 71.4 team receiving grade, twenty first in the NFL. Their -0.124 EPA per play was good for simply thirtieth. Will Rodgers make a big distinction? The Jets struggled in the purple zone final season, rating twenty eighth in profitable drive charge. The Packers ranked 14th.
8. Los Angeles Chargers
Postseason rating: 8
Projected wins: 8.8
The Chargers have considered one of the hardest schedules in the league and are projected to win 8.8 video games. They’re in a tough AFC convention, however Herbert and his receiving corps are a power to be reckoned with.
The Chargers quarterback completed ninth in passing grade in 2022 (76.7) however fell outdoors the high 20 passers in yards per try. He was sixth amongst quarterbacks by way of WAR (3.11). If new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore can get Herbert to be extra aggressive, this offense might make for entertaining viewing.
The Chargers receivers ranked twelfth in receiving grade (76.3) and ninth in EPA per play in 2022. They have been solely second behind the Chiefs receivers in whole yards.
9. Miami Dolphins
Postseason rating: 11
Projected wins: 8.7
The largest problem for the Dolphins this season is maintaining Tua Tagovailoa wholesome. Large receiver Tyreek Hill is considered one of the greatest receivers in the league and generated the second-most WAR amongst non-quarterbacks final season (0.70).
Tua has proven a penchant for pushing the ball deep down the center of the discipline, however there may be room for enchancment with regards to his accuracy on these throws.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
Postseason rating: 12
Projected wins: 9.0
The Jaguars play in arguably the best division in all of soccer. Their offseason was a combined bag, as they lastly bought Calvin Ridley again from his suspension however misplaced key contributors like Jawaan Taylor and Arden Key to free company. Their success probably hinges on the offense persevering with its success from final 12 months and Trevor Lawrence taking one other step ahead in his growth and turning into extra constant on a throw-for-throw foundation.
The protection returns many key items, however they’re very skinny throughout the board. The sting room is very regarding until Travon Walker can reside as much as his billing as a former first total choose. In any other case, there can be an enormous reliance on Josh Allen to hold the load in that division.
11. Cleveland Browns
Postseason rating: 9
Projected wins: 9.1
The Browns arguably have considered one of the greatest rosters in all of soccer, with depth throughout the board in key positions. Deshaun Watson was disappointing final 12 months, however opposed climate situations and rust might’ve probably performed a component in his struggles. With one other 12 months in the system, together with the addition of Elijah Moore to the WR room, he might return to the type he confirmed in 2020 when he was considered one of the greatest quarterbacks in the sport.
The protection was one other low spot for the Browns final 12 months, as they ranked useless final in broken-coverage charge. Hopefully, the Jim Schwartz rent and improved move rush might help flip issues round.
12. Baltimore Ravens
Postseason rating: 10
Projected wins: 9.6
The Ravens signed Odell Beckham Jr. to a fairly costly one-year deal and noticed Calais Campbell, Marcus Peters and Ben Powers depart in free company. Rookie pass-catcher Zay Flowers ought to give Lamar the greatest WR room he’s had since becoming a member of the group in 2018.
The Ravens’ protection was elite in 2022, particularly after the Roquan Smith commerce, as they ranked fifth in EPA allowed per play from Weeks 9 to Week 18. Their move rush is slightly weak on paper, particularly on downs the place they’re dashing 4 gamers. Nonetheless, Smith and Patrick Queen is likely to be considered one of the greatest blitzing linebacker duos in the NFL, and Mike McDonald did an amazing job of producing stress through blitzes, stunts and simulated pressures final 12 months, which we are able to anticipate to proceed.
13. Minnesota Vikings
Postseason rating: 14
Projected wins: 8.3
The Vikings have considered one of the hardest schedules in the league this season.
Cousins generated a career-high 3.61 WAR in 2022, adequate for fourth amongst quarterbacks. The presence of Justin Jefferson, who generated the most WAR amongst non-quarterbacks final season (0.71), makes his job simpler. One unfavourable was that Cousins threw 13 picks and took 45 sacks, that are clear areas of enchancment for this offense in 2023.
14. Detroit Lions
Postseason rating: 15
Projected wins: 8.9
The Detroit Lions are favored to win the NFC North for the first time shortly. This offense was considered one of the greatest in the league final 12 months, rating sixth in EPA per play and third in EPA per move. The offense additionally ranked second by way of forcing damaged protection from opposing defenses, and they did all of this with out the work of Jameson Williams for many of the 12 months. Though Williams can be out the first six video games of the season, the Lions’ nice offensive line and playcalling will probably hold them amongst the league’s greatest offenses this season.
The Lions prioritized the secondary this offseason, turning over considered one of the league’s worst move defenses from 2022. They signed CB Cameron Sutton, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Emmanuel Moseley, and they drafted Brian Department in the second spherical of the draft. This needs to be considered one of the most improved models from 2022 to 2023, given all the sources they invested from free company and the draft.
15. Seattle Seahawks
Postseason rating: 16
Projected wins: 8.4
Geno Smith burst onto the scene in 2022, main the Seahawks to a shock playoff go to.
One in all Smith’s greatest attributes as a passer has been his capability to search out the open receiver and ship the ball precisely, each of that are very steady metrics 12 months over 12 months. With the addition of first-round choose Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the continued growth of second-year offensive tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, Smith ought to have loads of open receivers to throw to and extra time to sit down in the pocket in 2023.
Bobby Wagner, PFF’s highest-graded linebacker a season in the past, returns to the protection, including a veteran presence to a younger and proficient group. With Tariq Woolen rising final 12 months and fifth total choose Devon Witherspoon in the fold, this secondary and protection leaves loads of room for optimism, although the unit continues to be younger and unproven.
16. New York Giants
Postseason rating: 13
Projected wins: 7.5
QB Daniel Jones generated a career-best 2.15 WAR in 2022. Whereas his 70.0 passing grade ranked simply twentieth at the place, he completed eleventh in EPA per play on the 12 months.
The Giants protection struggled in 2022, rating thirtieth in team protection grade. Regardless of permitting the fifth-lowest open goal charge, they allowed 11 yards per reception, and 38.1% of the passes they confronted resulted in both a primary down or a landing.
17. New Orleans Saints
Postseason rating: 26
Projected wins: 9.3
Derek Carr has been a product of his atmosphere, producing when his supporting solid has been good and falling off when it hasn’t. The Saints have a sneaky good WR room, with all the pass-catchers projecting as effectively above common each before and after the catch. The team compelled protection errors at the fourth-highest charge in the NFL final season, suggesting Carr can have loads of open weapons to work with in 2023.
On protection, the team retains a lot of its expertise in Demario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu and Cameron Jordan, who perennially rank in the high percentiles in PFF grade at their respective positions. With these anchors comes some upside, however as every of those gamers is in his 30s, there are various questions on the fragility of this protection. Will 2023 be that 12 months when the Saints protection lastly slows down?
18. Pittsburgh Steelers
Postseason rating: 17
Projected wins: 8.7
QB Kenny Pickett carried out above expectations as a rookie quarterback. He was fifteenth in WAR at the place (1.82), but his receiving corps ranked 18th in receiving grade. Additionally they completed useless final in explosive performs and yards after the catch per reception. To enhance this season, they should discover methods to make large performs.
With T.J. Watt returning, their protection can be a lot improved after ending nineteenth in team protection grade final 12 months.
19. Inexperienced Bay Packers
Postseason rating: 18
Projected wins: 8.3
The Packers didn’t make any large strikes this offseason and didn’t make any long-term dedication to Jordan Love as the starter. They gave their new quarterback a one-year “extension,” however the whole worth of that deal was lower than the fifth-year choice would’ve been had they picked it up final summer season.
Inexperienced Bay spent three Day 2 picks on ability place gamers to attempt to encompass Love with as many weapons as potential to hopefully determine if he’s somebody the team can depend on to be their franchise QB of the future.
The Packers didn’t make any notable additions to their protection outdoors of drafting Lukas Van Ness in the first spherical, although he appears to be like to be a long-term undertaking somewhat than a serious impression contributor straight away.
20. New England Patriots
Postseason rating: 20
Projected wins: 7.6
The Patriots offense was a multitude final 12 months, which led to the group bringing again Invoice O’Brien as offensive coordinator. O’Brien ought to assist Mac Jones get nearer to the place he was in 2021, using extra play motion and movement than Matt Patricia did final season.
The Patriots’ protection ought to as soon as once more be amongst the league’s greatest, particularly after drafting Christian Gonzalez in the first spherical, Keion White in the second and Marte Mapu in the third.
21. Washington Commanders
Postseason rating: 22
Projected wins: 7.4
Final season, the Commanders protection was considered one of the greatest in the league at stopping opponents from transferring the ball. And whereas defensive regression is at all times a think about predicting future defensive output, the depth on the defensive with Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Chase Younger makes regression rather less probably.
The central query for the Commanders is the play of second-year QB Sam Howell. Following a dominant 2020 marketing campaign by which he was the fourth-most helpful school QB based on WAA, many thought Howell was the favourite to be the No. 1 total choose in the 2021 draft. Ought to Howell carry out at that degree, this team might fly up the rankings, although if he performs to his fifth-round pedigree backed by an offensive line that allowed considered one of the highest stress charges in the league final 12 months, the ceiling can be capped.
22. Denver Broncos
Postseason rating: 23
Projected wins: 8.1
Russell Wilson produced profession lows in each PFF grade and WAR final season. Will he enhance upon his degree of play or proceed to say no? The Broncos received’t have it simple, being in considered one of the best divisions in the harder convention.
This receiving corps ranked thirtieth in team receiving grade final season. They led the league in deep targets and completed third in receiving yards on deep targets, however they accomplished solely 35% of those passes. The addition of Marvin Mims Jr. could assist, as the rookie was an explosive receiver at Oklahoma.
Denver’s offensive line additionally struggled, rating twenty seventh in offensive grade. Nonetheless, the additions of Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey will hopefully enhance this.
23. Las Vegas Raiders
Postseason rating: 25
Projected wins: 7.5
The Raiders receivers flew underneath the radar final season, ending the 12 months eleventh in receiving yards and 14th in yards after the catch. However now with out Derek Carr, the team will want Jimmy Garoppolo to step as much as the plate.
Their protection completed thirtieth in protection grade in 2022, permitting the second-most EPA per play in the league. They struggled to cowl receivers and allowed 342 open targets. They’ve only a few playmakers on protection — search for rookies to step up this season.
24. Chicago Bears
Postseason rating: 19
Projected wins: 7.5
The Bears protection struggled mightily final season, ending the marketing campaign with a league-worst 47.3 team protection grade. They particularly struggled with run protection, as over 64% of their performs have been graded negatively.
QB Justin Fields is a good scrambler and a cheat code in the working sport when he is utilized to his full potential. The Bears led the league in dashing yards in 2022 and will probably look to lean on this dashing assault once more in 2023.
25. Atlanta Falcons
Postseason rating: 27
Projected wins: 8.2
The Falcons have the best schedule in the league, based on PFF’s energy rankings. Nonetheless, they play in considered one of the best divisions in the league and could have an opportunity, even with a below-average roster.
QB Desmond Ridder completed his rookie season with 708 passing yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, a 60.1 passing grade and 64 dashing yards.
26. Tennessee Titans
Postseason rating: 24
Projected wins: 8.2
The Titans offensive line struggled in move safety, permitting the highest stress charge in the league (32.1%) and rating twenty second in PFF grade. Regardless of this, veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill was ranked 18th in passing grade (71.9).
The Titans completed twelfth in receiving yards and fourth in receiving yards after contact, however the addition of DeAndre Hopkins will assist. Hopkins caught 64 passes for 717 yards and three scores in simply 9 video games with the Cardinals. In a simple division, they need to be capable of provide you with some wins.
27. Carolina Panthers
Postseason rating: 28
Projected wins: 8.0
With a brand new coach and quarterback, Carolina has low expectations because it seeks to take a long-term view in retooling the team. Offensively, head coach Frank Reich ought to carry stability and hold the Panthers from bottoming out, however the team’s weapons are questionable — no participant on offense earned a PFF grade in the high 35% at their respective place final season.
Jaycee Horn stays a steadying power on protection, and Derrick Brown emerged final season with an 84.4 PFF grade. However with Brian Burns now holding out, the protection would possibly regress from the league-average unit we noticed final 12 months.
There are causes for optimism with Reich and Bryce Younger, however 2023 would possibly greatest be considered as a growth 12 months for the group.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Postseason rating: 21
Projected wins: 7.5
The Buccaneers struggled on fourth downs final season, opting to not go for it on fourth down method too typically.
Baker Mayfield can be their beginning quarterback for 2023, and whereas he has the expertise and has proven glimpses of greatness, he’s unlikely to take them to a Tremendous Bowl. The team is ranked 14th in power of schedule.
29. Los Angeles Rams
Postseason rating: 30
Projected wins: 7.2
The Rams are considered one of the youngest groups in the league. When evaluating their Tremendous Bowl roster to the present roster, there are quite a lot of simply noticeable modifications. The 2 greatest points with the team lie with their secondary and offensive line.
After buying and selling Jalen Ramsey, it’s clear the Rams don’t possess the shutdown nook they’ve been capable of trot out for the previous 4 years. Lots of the versatility Ramsey introduced through transferring inside to the slot and being considered one of the greatest run-defending corners in the NFL is now gone and can be extraordinarily tough to interchange.
The Rams offensive line was a multitude final 12 months. Matthew Stafford bought harm a number of instances before getting shut down for the remainder of the season. They drafted Steve Avila with their first choose on this previous draft, however that may not be sufficient to enhance the offensive line to the place it must be.
30. Indianapolis Colts
Postseason rating: 29
Projected wins: 7.7
The Colts have struggled over the previous few seasons. They’ve considered one of the best schedules in the league this season, however they’re nonetheless anticipated to win 7.7 video games.
As you’ll be able to see in the graphic under, they struggled to be environment friendly in each the working and passing sport in 2022, performing higher than solely the Texans and Buccaneers. With Anthony Richardson as their beginning quarterback, they’re going to wish him to provide, particularly if Jonathan Taylor doesn’t play.
(*1*)
That they had the third-lowest-graded offensive line in the league (67.4).
31. Houston Texans
Postseason rating: 31
Projected wins: 6.0
The Texans merely don’t have sufficient weapons to help rookie QB C.J. Stroud. This receiving corps ranked thirty first in EPA per play in 2022 (-0.165). The team has since traded away Brandin Cooks, and the additions of Robert Woods, Noah Brown and Tank Dell don’t determine to carry the manufacturing they want. On high of that, additionally they had the sixth-lowest-graded offensive line in the league (62.3) in 2022.
The Texans had the second-lowest-graded protection in 2022. For now, 6.0 projected wins appears affordable.
32. Arizona Cardinals
Postseason rating: 32
Projected wins: 5.1
Regardless of naming Kyler Murray a captain, he could not play in any respect this season. Joshua Dobbs is the starter, and he’s performed solely 182 snaps in his NFL profession.
This team struggled in most areas in 2022. The protection was ranked twenty seventh in PFF grade (60.8). Arizona has quite a lot of work to do.
