Premiership favourite, contenders, why every team can and can’t win the flag, analysis, news

Eight finalists, eight tales and eight probabilities at becoming a member of historical past.

The 2023 AFL finals get underway tonight and every team left in the race can nonetheless dream of glory at the finish of September.

Right here’s why all eight finalists can and can’t win the premiership.

Watch every match of the 2023 Toyota AFL Finals Sequence earlier than the Grand Last Stay & Advert-Break Free Throughout Play on Kayo Sports activities. Be part of now and begin streaming immediately >

COLLINGWOOD

1st, 18-5, Qualifying Last v Melbourne at the MCG

Why they can win the flag

Their backline brilliance and ball motion.

Collingwood are the rebound beasts of the competitors, making you pay time and time once more from their again half on the scoreboard. Run from the likes of Nick Daicos early in the season to Jack Crisp and Oleg Markov in the later rounds has produced for the Pies all through 2023. The aspect is ranked primary in the competitors for factors from their defensive half and for inside 50s from the defensive half.

Fox Footy’s Leigh Montagna described Collingwood’s capacity to hit the scoreboard from performs that begin of their again half as their “best power”.

“They’ve been profitable video games off their capacity to attain from the again half,” he stated on AFL 360. “We’ve seen all of it 12 months lengthy, Markov and the boys taking the run and carry.”

The Magpies additionally profit from carrying in finals expertise, after their devastating one-point preliminary last loss to Sydney final 12 months. Defender Brayden Maynard summed it up finest when requested about final 12 months’s dream-like run, stating the team had been simply “working on a little bit of adrenaline”.

“I really feel like we’re much more ready this 12 months,” he stated. “Finals footy is a distinct sport – you’ve bought to be prepared.”

It’s additionally a deep and, outdoors of Daicos, wholesome squad, which led to teach Craig McRae making a daring name at the choice desk on Thursday night time. Defender John Noble was axed for the first last, regardless of the Magpie taking part in all 23 video games of the dwelling and away season.

The Pies have been the finest team for almost the total season — and the previous two premiers (Melbourne in 2021 and Geelong in 2022) received the flag after ending first.

Why they can’t win the flag

The ahead line stability and their contested sport.

The Magpies have opted to go tall for the qualifying last in opposition to Melbourne, however it’s a line-up that hasn’t all the time produced. The Pies sit twelfth for his or her capacity to lock the ball of their entrance half, as too typically there’s nobody at the fall to cease the footy rebounding again out.

Brody Mihocek has carried out his finest as the greatest marking goal. But when Mason Cox doesn’t produce and Dan McStay has one other quiet outing, that places loads of strain on Mihocek. Collingwood wants contributions on the scoreboard from the likes of Jamie Elliott, Bobby Hill and Jordan de Goey to maintain that scoreboard ticking over.

Jack Ginnivan was anticipated to be the spark for the Pies in assault, with Nathan Buckley stating he thought the 20-year-old was a must-pick.

“He confirmed his class, his end and his power … His final couple of weeks have stated ‘I’m able to go in September’,” he stated.

The Magpies’ contested ball work can be an space they’ll have to tidy up. From Rounds 1-11, the Pies ranked prime two in contested possessions and floor ball will get and seventh in clearances. However since, they’ve dropped off dramatically to be ranked fifteenth in contested possessions, seventeenth in groundball will get and eleventh in clearances.

Add in the reality the Pies have little dwelling floor benefit in the opening spherical of finals for ending prime of the desk this 12 months — contemplating they’ll meet Melbourne in the first week at the MCG then, if it loses, probably face Carlton at the similar venue in a semi-final —

BRISBANE

2nd, 17-6, Qualifying Last v Port Adelaide at the Gabba

Why they can win the flag

It’s their finest time to strike since Chris Fagan has been at the membership – and the coach is aware of it.

The Lions have featured in the previous 4 consecutive finals sequence, however have received simply three of their 9 matches.

However as Fagan identified on Fox Footy’s On The Sofa this week, they’ve received 17 video games this season – their finest dwelling and away return below him – and the group of younger gamers that began taking part in finals 4 years in the past – Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry, Brandon Starcevich, Jarrod Berry, Cam Rayner – are all mature AFL gamers now.

“I feel with the enchancment and maturity of these guys and the males we’ve recruited to the membership, I feel that is our greatest alternative doubtless,” Fagan informed On The Sofa.

“I’m a fantastic believer in all these experiences harden you and put together you to supply your finest in September. I’m sensing that with them at coaching, I’m sensing that in conversations round the membership that they’ve actually matured and they know these alternatives don’t final ceaselessly.”

The Lions have additionally earned not less than two dwelling finals at The Gabba – a venue they’ve received 30 of their previous 33 video games at, together with all 12 this season. So that they have a golden alternative to keep away from the MCG – the venue they’ve received simply certainly one of their previous 15 video games at – till Grand Last day, when something is feasible.

“I feel they’ve bought the perception now,” membership legend Jonathan Brown informed On The Sofa.

“I feel in earlier years they had been hopeful. The truth that you win your first last and you probably don’t journey to Melbourne till Grand Last day, that’s the clear run.”

Brisbane can be a deadly attacking team. In actual fact of the September combatants, no ahead line is extra damaging than Brisbane’s.

The Lions rank first for factors from turnover, inside 50 differential and second for factors scored and rating per inside 50 effectivity. Shutting down – and even simply slowing down – the likes of Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Zac Bailey is a tricky activity, particularly at The Gabba.

Why they can’t win the flag

A qualifying last loss to the Energy could be disastrous.

Sure they’d earn a house semi-final in opposition to the winner of the Saints-Giants conflict, however profitable that sport would result in an MCG preliminary last in opposition to both Collingwood or Melbourne.

The Lions are clearly a extra hardened and skilled team forward of this finals marketing campaign, however that 3-9 finals document stays a key concern for pundits. And it stays to be seen how effectively the Lions will deal with that psychological burden ought to any last get shut.

The opposite concern is Brisbane’s defensive system. The Lions this season are ranked eleventh in the competitors for defending ball motion – and in line with Leigh Montagna, they’re simpler to maneuver the ball in opposition to away from The Gabba.

“Brisbane can be weak shifting their team defence,” Montagna informed Fox Footy’s AFL 360.

“When you play straight-line footy in opposition to Brisbane, you play into Harris Andrews’ fingers – and they do it rather well at The Gabba, assume like the Cats how they defend actually week at their very own dwelling floor.

“However it’s why they’re weak at the MCG, Brisbane, since you can shift the ball on them.”

Brisbane’s total turnover sport, too, isn’t in nice form.

Since Spherical 19, the Lions are ranked final in total turnovers, whereas they’re additionally rated fifteenth in factors from turnovers and thirteenth in factors from ahead half intercepts.

Defending the ball higher themselves and punishing different groups after they do flip it over can be a key space Fagan’s aspect will look to tidy up, notably given the strain stakes will solely amplify.

PORT ADELAIDE

third, 17-6, Qualifying Last v Brisbane at the Gabba

Why they can win the flag

That midfield brigade. Ooft.

Of all eight midfield teams, no team possesses an on-ball trio as dynamic and highly effective as Port Adelaide’s.

In Connor Rozee, Jason Horne-Francis and Zak Butters, the Energy have a midfield brigade able to explode on the September stage.

Each Rozee and Butters had been a part of the Energy’s 2020 and 2021 finals campaigns, however had been nonetheless in simply the second 12 months of their careers. Now with three All-Australians between them in the previous two seasons, they’re primed to shine – notably Butters, who final week claimed the AFL Coaches’ Affiliation Champion Participant Awards and is ranked first at Port for contested possessions, clearances, inside 50s and rating involvements.

“Zak Butters is their coronary heart and soul,” twin premiership Kangaroo David King informed Fox Footy’s AFL 360. “Nobody’s harder. He’s the smallest massive man in the sport.

“He’s all the pieces to them, his capacity to win it in all sides. He takes the ball from inside to outdoors and he takes the punishment.

“This man is 181cm, however he’s Marcus Bontempelli – that’s how it’s important to play him, as a result of he’s a brute and he’s so inventive.”

The Energy, as has been the case below Ken Hinkley in the previous 4 seasons, even have a powerful forward-half sport. They rank first in the competitors for factors in the ahead half and time in the ahead half.

It’s a model that’s usually profitable come September.

And like the Lions, this Energy team has skilled current finals heartbreak. So with a extra hardened and senior checklist, they’re higher ready this 12 months for a premiership tilt.

Why they can’t win the flag

Defensively, there are some massive considerations.

From Rounds 18 to 24, Port ranked 14th in factors in opposition to and seventeenth for each opposition scores per inside 50 effectivity and opposition ball motion from defensive 50 to inside 50 effectivity.

Throughout the total season, the Energy are thirteenth for opposition scores per entry and 18th for defensive one-on-one wins.

“We all know that as a result of they’re so aggressive with their press, in the event you can get by means of Port Adelaide, you can rating,” Leigh Montagna warned on AFL 360.

They’ve additionally bought some personnel points. Key ahead Charlie Dixon — certainly one of Port’s most necessary gamers — and ruck Dante Visentini each received’t play in opposition to Brisbane, whereas Todd Marshall, Trent McKenzie and Scott Lycett are racing the clock to be match. And if Lycett isn’t obtainable, Sam Hayes can be the No. 1 ruck in opposition to Oscar McInerney.

Taking over the Lions in Brisbane — arguably footy’s hardest street journey activity at the second — isn’t splendid. The Lions will head into the sport s overwhelming favourites — and ought to they win then Port wins a semi-final, Ken Hinkley’s troops must beat both Collingwood or Melbourne at the MCG in a preliminary last.

MELBOURNE

4th, 16-7, Qualifying Last v Collingwood at the MCG

Why they can win the flag

“Defence and contest” — it’s been the basis of Simon Goodwin’s sport plan and success for a few years.

The Demons are amongst the prime 4 groups for each clearances and contested possessions, which permits them to play a powerful forward-half sport. Positive there’s loads of criticism about their attacking line-up and the combos Goodwin has run by means of, however in the final six weeks, the Dees have come dwelling with a moist sail.

Since Spherical 12, Melbourne are ranked as the primary team in the competitors for time in ahead half.

“Once we discuss the territory battle, that is the greatest problem when taking part in the Demons,” Fox Footy’s Leigh Montagna stated. “They’re clearly the primary team in the competitors at taking part in the sport of their ahead half.

“Over the complete 12 months they’re second, in the final 12 weeks they’re coming. They’re averaging 10 extra inside 50s than their opposition. Everybody’s taking about their effectivity – you don’t actually must be while you’re getting 10 extra appears than your opponent.”

Melbourne has failed to succeed in double figures for objectives in simply 5 video games this 12 months, whereas down the different finish they possess the second stingiest backline in the competitors, conceding simply 72 factors a sport. They’re additionally ranked first in the competitors for opposition rating per inside 50 (40%), opposition factors from turnovers (41.1) and opposition defensive 50 to inside 50 share (16%) this season

That backline led by Steven Could and Jake Lever has proved rock-solid once more.

The Dees even have an enormous motivation after final 12 months’s straight units exit. Skipper Max Gawn admits the aspect ran out of puff in 2022 after the premiership excessive of 2021.

“You can be excused, profitable seven in a row, profitable a grand last and then profitable 10 in a row … that we had been nearly untouchable,” he stated final week.

“We didn’t say that, however that may very well be a possible thought. Then we had been knocked off – we did run out of gasoline.”

Now they’re refreshed and raring to go, with the added motivation of flag success in entrance of dwelling followers – one thing that eluded them in 2021.

Why they can’t win the flag

An excessive amount of reliance on Max Gawn.

There’s little doubt the skipper is a famous person of the competitors. Fox Footy’s David King even calls Gawn the “greatest weapon” in the finals race.

However we noticed it earlier this 12 months that when groups go after Gawn, the Dees can fold. Port Adelaide roughed Gawn up at every alternative and went on to get the 4 factors when the two sides met in Could.

“The tactic of checking Max Gawn will not be a brand new thought. Ken Hinkley put this on the radar method again in Spherical 1 of 2019 the place they simply tried to delay him for time – and it really works. It upsets Max Gawn’s sport,” King beforehand stated.

Given statistics present simply how a lot Melbourne depend on Gawn down the floor – with a competition-high 34 contested marks between the arcs – a sport plan to take down the ruck may merciless Melbourne’s cost.

“It’s very easy to fall in love with Melbourne as a result of their trump card is so massive,” King praised.

Plus the connection between Melbourne’s midfield brigade and ahead line remains to be removed from its finest. The Demons are ranked 14th in the competitors for each defensive 50 to inside 50 conversion (20%) and scores per inside 50 (41%).

There’s additionally the lingering doubts from 2022. Coach Goodwin this week warned “your vulnerabilities get uncovered in finals”. Mentally the Demons have been in tip-top form the previous six weeks. However may they unravel on the greatest stage as soon as extra?

Gawn believed the membership has learnt from that disappointing exit final 12 months, however actions all the time communicate louder than phrases.

CARLTON

fifth, 13-9-1, Elimination Last v Sydney at the MCG

Why they can win the flag

Momentum. In response to Champion Knowledge’s ‘core 4’, the Blues are ranked No. 1 in the competitors.

The Blues enter this finals sequence on a scorching streak – except for their last spherical stumble in opposition to GWS in a sport that in the end meant nothing for Carlton’s finals aspirations.

The Blues had been at a horror low halfway by means of the season sitting in the backside 4 earlier than a bonding journey to Torquay turned their season round. Time away at Ed Curnow’s property sparked the aspect to eight-straight wins post-bye.

And with it got here Carlton’s identification: Their power as contested kings.

“Carlton’s clearance sport at the second is dynamite,” Fox Footy’s Leigh Montagna stated on AFL 360.

In the final six weeks, the Blues have been the competitors’s finest for clearances and factors from clearances, with their midfield led beautifully by skipper Patrick Cripps.

Throw in the devastating type of Coleman Medallist Charlie Curnow and the Blues pose an enormous risk in the finals race in 2023. Curnow is proving unstoppable, taking up all defenders earlier than him and delivering on the scoreboard for his aspect.

His 78-goal haul for 2023 is the greatest Coleman Medal tally since Eagle Josh Kennedy’s 80 again in 2016.

Even AFL nice Chris Judd stated he was in awe of Curnow’s efforts this season.

“Charlie is excellent in the dialog for the finest participant in the league at the minute,” he informed media this week. “I hope that doesn’t add any additional strain to him, however he’s the sort of participant who you could possibly see actually being arrange for an enormous September.”

Why they can’t win the flag

Just one team has received the premiership from outdoors the prime 4 this century: The Western Bulldogs in 2016.

In order robust as the Blues’ profile is and pretty much as good as they stack up in opposition to the top-four sides, they’d must defy important historical past to say a premiership.

The turnover sport, too, is Carlton’s kryptonite. Statistics present in the final six weeks, the Blues are ranked seventeenth for turnovers and fifteenth for opposition factors off turnover.

However they do have the Curnow firepower down the different finish ought to a last go right into a shootout.

“They’re getting scored in opposition to on turnover. It’s their weak point at the second. Their Achilles heel,” Fox Footy’s Leigh Montagna stated.

“They’re turning the ball over a good bit.”

There’s nonetheless query marks over their backline as they conceded two of their fourth greatest scores for the season in the last two rounds.

Expertise can be an element that would rely in opposition to Carlton come September. They may enter the finals with the fewest variety of gamers with finals expertise on their checklist. Skipper Cripps even admitted final week he final performed finals at an Underneath 14s degree.

Solely eight gamers at the Blues have ever performed in a last – with seven of these getting that have at different golf equipment.

Defender Jacob Weitering has tried to minimize his aspect’s inexperience in finals.

“We haven’t been there for 10 years, however now we have definitely been in conditions fairly related,” he stated on SEN. “We’ve been in moments in video games the place there’s been 85,000 or 90,000 individuals the place we’ve been up by a degree and down by a degree. We’ve misplaced some and it’s been heartbreaking, we’ve received some as effectively, and they’re all experiences which can maintain us in good stead.”

ST KILDA

sixth, 13-10, Elimination Last v GWS Giants at the MCG

Why they can win the flag

Ross Lyon — and his defensive system.

Few would’ve anticipated the Saints to enhance a lot of their first season below coach Lyon that they’d be the No. 1 defence in the competitors. St Kilda at the finish of the dwelling and away season was ranked first in the competitors for level in opposition to, conceding simply 71.6 per sport.

Not solely that, the Saints ranked second for opposition rating per inside 50 (40%), third for opposition factors conceded from defensive half (27.0) and fourth for opposition factors from turnovers (42.0).

Paul Roos all the time stated defence wins you premierships …

Lyon has taken two completely different groups to Grand Finals — and as Jonathan Brown identified, “that’s not luck”.

“This man can simply drag you into deep water and flip it right into a sport the place 10 objectives to eight wins you the sport. I really feel like he’ll have one thing up his sleeve and make it an actual dogfight,” Brown informed On The Sofa.

An underrated side to the Saints’ gameplan this 12 months is that they have completely different gears.

Once they’ve taken 110-plus marks in a sport this 12 months, they’re 7-0. It is because they’ve bought a match, hard-running taking part in group, which can be essential in finals.

“They might win a last or two as a result of they make it powerful, they’re onerous runners, intestine runners. If St Kilda can get their working sport up and going offensively, they can kick sufficient to win,” Brown stated.

They’ve additionally bought an in-form All-Australian full-back in Callum Wilkie, who conceded only one aim in his final 4 dwelling and away video games. That was taking part in on the likes of Charlie Curnow, Jack Riewoldt, Jeremy Cameron and Eric Hipwood, too.

And so they’ve bought a dominant ruckman in Rowan Marshall, who made the All-Australian squad. Whereas Marshall has all the time been famend for his clearance capacity and willingness to drop again into defence to intercept, he’s proven in the previous seven weeks how damaging he can be ahead of centre, booting six objectives and taking eight marks inside 50.

Why they can’t win the flag

Of all eight finalists, the Saints most likely have the least expertise depth. When a last is up for grabs, which people are going to face up and be a degree of distinction?

Pretty much as good as they at stopping the opposition from scoring, the Saints aren’t the most fluent or damaging team offensively.

They’ll enter finals ranked final of the eight remaining groups for common factors scored (77.2), — which was fifteenth total — and eleventh total for offensive ball motion. Simply as regarding is the reality they’re ranked 18th this season for scores per inside 50 (40%).

Granted two of their most damaging forwards Max King and Tim Membrey have been unavailable for many of the season – and can be there for the first last – however it’s a difficulty the Saints should overcome.

Above all, the Saints must win three straight video games — together with a visit to both Brisbane or Adelaide in week two — to only get to a Grand Last.

And so they’d additionally must play a number of video games at the MCG — a venue they’ve performed simply seven video games at in the previous 4 years.

GWS GIANTS

seventh, 13-10, Elimination Last v St Kilda at the MCG

Why they can win the flag

They’re in scorching type and below the least quantity of strain

The Giants come into finals with the smallest exterior expectations, for few pre-season would’ve predicted them to return so shortly to September motion.

It is a free hit for first-year coach Adam Kingsley, who’s helped mastermind a shocking surge in the back-half of the season.

And an enormous purpose why the Giants have received 9 of their previous 11 video games is because of their robust forward-half sport.

Since Spherical 13, the Giants have been the No. 1 team in the competitors for factors from turnover differential (+22.5) – and 9 of the final 10 premiers have ranked top-six for factors from turnover differential. It is because the Giants, in the similar interval, have been the third-best team for each common forward-half intercepts (26.2) and strain ranking (187).

The expectation was Kingsley would deliver a style of Richmond to the Giants – and that’s the way it’s performed out to date.

After which there’s the duo with the similar sounding names: Toby Greene and Tom Inexperienced.

All-Australian skipper Greene is in the midst of a career-best season, booting 60 objectives and averaging 17.9 disposals from 21 matches. Extra importantly, he’s a finals specialist, booting 20 objectives from 11 finals for the Giants.

Midfielder Inexperienced has solely performed one last — in opposition to the Swans in his second 12 months — however is primed for an enormous September marketing campaign. He’s ranked first in the competitors this season for common disposals (32.1) and contested possessions (14.8).

“He’s a extremely tough match-up. His numbers are ridiculous … He’s a beast,” twin premiership Kangaroo David King informed Fox Footy’s AFL 360.

“He’s simply doing it now that’s bloody onerous to cease. I don’t understand how you cease him.”

Why they can’t win the flag

The Bulldogs received a flag from seventh in 2016. However they’re the solely team this century to do it.

Like the Canine, the Giants must win three consecutive interstate matches to make the Grand Last — a monumental activity contemplating the benefit the prime 4 groups get.

And regardless of Inexperienced’s type, there’s additionally a query mark on their midfield return. They’re certainly one of the weaker finals groups at stoppages, rating thirteenth this season for clearance differential (-1.4) and twelfth for common factors from clearances (32.0).

And will there be an unhealthy reliance on skipper Greene?

When the Giants captain has kicked three objectives or extra this 12 months, the Giants are 10-3. When he’s kicked two objectives or much less, the Giants are 3-5.

If Callum Wilkie goes to him on Saturday afternoon, Greene can be in for a tricky afternoon.

Total, the Giants’ ‘core 4’ premiership profile simply isn’t in the similar neighborhood as the prime 5 groups in the competitors.

SYDNEY SWANS

eighth, 12-10-1, Elimination Last v Carlton at the MCG

Why they can win the flag

The Bloods tradition. Sydney regarded down and out halfway by means of the season. However you can by no means write off a John Longmire aspect.

With a game-by-game mentality, he bought the aspect up every week to creep slowly in direction of a bit of September. Longmire is a grasp at getting his aspect to peak at the proper time. In final 12 months’s run to the Grand Last, they had been on a nine-game profitable streak. This 12 months, that document was six straight wins earlier than the last spherical defeat to the Demons.

The Swans simply personify the never-say-die angle.

And it reveals of their intercept stats.

“They may need a turnover sport,” Fox Footy’s Leigh Montagna stated.

“It’s not by means of intercept marking – they’re really ranked 18th for intercept marks – they do it with their strain. They’re the primary strain team. They strip groups, power them into errors.

“You can image (Errol) Gulden, (Ollie) Florent and these guys and they’re off. They problem groups defensively.”

Additionally, any ‘no Buddy, no worries’ fears have certainly been allayed throughout the back-end of this season. Of their previous seven video games, the Swans have received six, scored 96 or extra factors in 4 of them and ranked amongst the top-six groups in common factors scored (89.1). Hayden McLean, Isaac Heeney, Will Hayward and Logan McDonald have all lifted their outputs throughout that interval.

The Swans haven’t been at their stingy finest this season in defence attributable to a bunch of accidents, however their gamers are again at the proper time of the season.

The likes of Tom McCartin and Dane Rampe are at full health as soon as extra in promising indicators for an enormous September marketing campaign.

Why they can’t win the flag

Profitable a flag from eighth spot is bloody onerous.

To get to a Grand Last, Sydney must win three consecutive video games away from dwelling, with the first two being at the MCG then a tricky street journey to both the Gabba or Adelaide Oval.

They’re struggling to expire video games, too. Six occasions this 12 months they’ve led at three quarter-time and been run over – and these fade-outs have been regarding.

The Swans, too, aren’t getting first fingers on the ball. And whereas their intercept sport is tremendous robust, sooner or later that dam wall will break.

Statistics present the Swans are ranked 14th in the competitors for clearance differential and 14th for factors from clearance.

Too typically their opponent is getting first use and going ahead, forcing the Sydney backline to slingshot into assault.

“For Sydney, this has been a weak point all 12 months – we’ve flagged it,” Fox Footy’s Leigh Montagna stated of the Swans’ clearance numbers.

“Final 12 months’s grand last it bought uncovered. Sydney are most likely going to must depend on their strain. (However) can Sydney deliver that a lot warmth?”

The Swans’ again six for a few years has been famend for its capacity to soak up unimaginable warmth but nonetheless cease the opposition from scoring. This season has been no completely different.

However Sydney is ranked seventeenth in the competitors for common inside 50s conceded (seventeenth) but second for opposition scores per inside 50 (38%). How sustainable will that be come September?